The DME updates the 5- and 10-year enrollment projections annually as part of the Master Facilities Plan Supplement. Using the below visualization, users can explore the 2025 iteration of the projections at the sector and grade-band level and view the number of births, actual and projected, used as inputs to the calculations.
The projections use a mean grade progression ratio to age forward existing and estimated future cohorts, meaning they continue observed trends and do not make different assumptions about the future. New cohorts entering at PK3 are estimated by applying the 2022 births-to-PK3 capture rate for SY2025-26 to future births to 2024 and projected births from 2025 on. Projected births are assumed to level off and stop declining after 2030. More detail about the methodology can be read in Appendix 2 of the 2025 Master Facilities Plan Supplement.
2025 5- and 10-year enrollment projections
Sources:
OSSE Audited Enrollment, SY23-24 to SY25-26
The number of live births sourced from:
1995-2006 from KIDS COUNT;
2007-2009 and 2011-2014 from NCHS, Division of Vital Statistics, Natality public-use data;
2010 and 2015-2024 from Natality Data, Vital Records Division, Center for Policy, Planning and Evaluation, DC Department of Health
Note: 2010 and 2015-2023 excludes non DC resident births and includes DC resident births occurring in other states.
