The birth to kindergarten enrollment ratio shows how many kindergarteners enroll in public school as compared to the number of births five years earlier. The dark orange line shows the audited public school kindergarten enrollment. The blue line displays the citywide number of births from five years earlier. The birth to kindergarten ratio (shown in gray) is calculated from the number of citywide public kindergarten enrollment for a certain school year divided by the number of citywide births five years earlier.
The birth to kindergarten enrollment ratio hovered around 80% pre pandemic, dropped to 77% in the first year of the pandemic (SY20-21), and then again to 75% for SY21-22. In SY22-23, it climbed up to 76%. Applying this ratio to the number of births after 2017 can help us estimate how many kindergarteners may enroll between SY23-24 through SY25-26. The light orange line shows the forecasted or estimated future kindergarten enrollment based on a 80% cohort ratio. Because births started decreasing after 2016, the number of estimated future kindergarteners are also estimated to decrease, potentially falling to 7,095 kindergarten students in SY25-26. Users can apply different birth to K ratios in the visualization, which results in reestimating future kindergarten enrollments.
Birth to Kindergarten Ratios,
and Estimated Future Kindergarten Enrollment
Sources: 1990-2005 citywide birth data downloaded from KIDS COUNT, DC Department of Health, 2014 Mortality Report; 2006-2020 citywide birth data from DC Office of Planning, State Data Center; OSSE Audited Enrollment, SY2005-06 through SY2022-23