Note: This page was previously titled "Births to Kindergarten Enrollment Ratio", it has been renamed to reflect that it now displays PK3 and PK4 capture rates as well as kindergarten.
A capture rate shows how many students enroll in a public school grade as compared to the number of births in an earlier year. The number of years earlier depends on the grade: three for PK3, four for PK4, and five for kindergarten. For example, the PK3 capture rate for a given school year is that grade's enrollment divided by the number of births three years earlier.
The visualization below shows the capture rate (gray) at the top, the number of births (green) in the middle, and public school enrollment (blue) at the bottom. In each panel, the darker line shows actual values — recorded births and audited enrollment — and the lighter line shows the forecast or estimated values. Future enrollment is estimated by applying a modeled capture rate to each birth cohort, using recorded births through 2024 and forecast births in later years. The birth forecasts were calculated for the 2025 Master Facilities Plan Supplement, more details about the methodology can be found in Appendix 4.
Across all three grades, capture rates dropped during the pandemic and have since recovered. Because births have declined since 2016, however, projected enrollment falls over the coming years even when the recovered capture rate is carried forward.
Use the drop-down menus to change the view. The grade menu switches among PK3, PK4, and kindergarten. The capture-rate menu sets the rate used to estimate future enrollment: by default it carries forward the most recent school year's rate, and users can instead apply a two- or three-year average or enter a custom rate.
Capture Rates and Estimated Future Enrollment
Sources: 1990-2005 citywide birth data downloaded from KIDS COUNT, DC Department of Health, 2014 Mortality Report; 2006-2024 citywide birth data from DC Office of Planning, State Data Center; Citywide birth forecasts from 2025 Master Facilities Plan Supplement, DME Planning & Analysis; OSSE Audited Enrollment, SY2005-06 through SY2025-26
