The Grade Progression Ratio (GPR) is a standard component of forecasting school enrollment. In many cases, the best predictor of future enrollment is past enrollment. The GPR captures the school enrollment patterns of students as they progress from grade to grade. For example, the PK3 to PK4 GPR for SY14-15 is calculated by dividing the number of students in PK4 as of the SY14-15 audit by the number of students who were in PK3 as of the SY13-14 audit. A ratio of larger than 1 (or greater than 100%) means there were additional students who were not enrolled the previous grade. A ratio of less than 1 (or less than 100%) means that students may be transferring away from the city, sector, school, or out of the public school system.
GPRs are different than re-enrollment because they do not necessarily reflect the same students. For example, if there were 100 students in PK3 in Year 1, and all 100 left the system while 110 new students enrolled in PK4 in Year 2, the GPR would be 1.1 or 110% (110/100). The tables provided here include 3 year moving averages in the tooltips.
Grade Progression Rates, 2013-2022
Source: OSSE Audited Enrollment, SY13-14 to SY22-23
